Art of foresight…

Came across this rather interesting read, about the business of going about making a forecast, or to use foresight

Emphasizes the usual common sense techniques of  working your way towards a prediction: scan, trends, validate, and provide a vision.

Advertisements

2 thoughts on “Art of foresight…”

  1. Well…prediction and forecasting are not the same as foresight – the former is about trying to find a certain outcome, the latter is about embracing complexity and exploring uncertainty to see what might happen. Prediction assumes their will be a certain future, and bets the farm on a single strategy, while foresight aims for a wider range of strategies that will be sustainable across a range of possible futures. Prediction is used by managers who don’t want to spend their time on thinking about uncertainty, while foresight is used by managers who want to build a sustainable future. Check out the foresight work done in the UK and Europe for clear examples of the difference.

  2. Maree, thanks for that comment, and correction. I didn’t think through the foresight, and forecast differences.
    In any case, will check out the content that you refer to, on the wfs.org site.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s